IHME estimates on COVID-19 deaths in South Carolina dramatically lower

State - Regional

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WBTW) – Some good news for South Carolina in the estimates of coronavirus deaths and the need for intensive care and total hospital beds.

Projected COVID-19 deaths and hospital bed use for South Carolina from the Institute of Health Metric Evaluation, or IHME, are down sharply in its latest data update.

The University of Washington institute’s COVID-19 forecasts have been closely watched by both state and federal officials.

The number of projected deaths in South Carolina has dropped by more than half to 442 by June. That’s a nearly 60% drop from last week’s projections.

The peak resource use date is projected to be a few days earlier than it was. The new date is April 24. The projected peak deaths per day in South Carolina are 14 on April 27 and April 29.

The forecast projects no shortage of ICU or hospital beds in South Carolina. 

These projections assume full social distancing through May 2020.

IHME now projects at the peak, 119 ventilators will be needed on April 24 to April 26.

IHME said more data and better models is allowing it to improve its forecasts. It still projects 81,766 will die in the United States of COVID-19-related illnesses by Aug. 4. It latest forecast show deaths per day nationwide peaking at 3,130 on April 16.

Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday the White House coronavirus task force had begun to see some glimmers of improvement in its data.


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