MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — Mostly cloudy conditions for a large majority of the day until after sunset when shower and thunderstorm activity will become more prevalent. High temperatures for today will be 82-85 degrees. Luckily, dewpoints are lower as well with values ranging from 60-66 degrees. It feels much more pleasant outside, especially in the Pee Dee and along the border belt. The air is still slightly sticky at the coast.

Rain jackets will likely be needed for those going out to support high school football teams. Rain coverage between 7-10 p.m. is isolated, but rain chances increase into the overnight hours.

The Weather Prediction Center has increased the excessive rainfall outlook for today. With a “slight” chance for excessive rainfall for lower Florence and Marion counties and most of Horry County.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

A “slight” risk means that there is a 15% chance that rainfall totals exceed flash flood guidance (FFG). FFG is simply how much rain has to fall in a given area to produce isolated flash flooding. One of the things this is based on is soil moisture, and currently, our soil is only at 20-30% capacity for how much water it can hold. Therefore, we would need a lot of rain to produce flooding.

Soil moisture

For today, the FFG in a 24 hr period is roughly 4-6″ in our area, and that is just not likely to happen.

24-hour flash flood guidance for the Southeast U.S.

The likelihood of seeing values that high is only 15% and the futurecast is not all that impressive for the remainder of today and only shows light, isolated showers.

For the rest of the weekend, an excessive rainfall outlook will be in place both Saturday and Sunday with the highest potential on Saturday. Most of our viewing area is in the “slight” risk; however, rainfall projections for the next 72 hours are only 1-1.5″ on average according to the European Model, and even lower on the GFS.

It is important to note, that there are going to be periods of thunderstorms that have the potential to drop a ton of rain in a short period of time; therefore, isolated areas could see 2-3″ of rain over the course of the weekend.

This weekend is not ideal with all of the rain though temperatures will be cooler and below average. Luckily by midweek widespread sunshine is becoming more likely.