MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WBTW) — Luckily, tonight it will be mostly clear only slight cloud cover, and it will not be as mild with temperatures in the low-60s, but some cities in the upper-50s tonight. We could be looking at a dense fog advisory for tomorrow morning as winds will be light and dewpoints will be close to the temperatures.
Records are in jeopardy for tomorrow as well. All cities have a record of 82 degrees to beat and that is the forecast in Florence. 83 is the forecast in Lumberton, and 79 degrees is the forecast in North Myrtle Beach.
A cold front moves through Monday night which will knock down temperatures by ten degrees or so for Tuesday, also dewpoints are going be lower by 20 degrees as dry air rushes in. The front moves through mainly dry, isolated showers are still possible due to all the moisture being pushed out.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be almost typical of November. A cold morning is expected on Wednesday as overnight temperatures Tuesday are going to be in the upper-40s in the Pee Dee and mid-50s along the Grand Strand.
All eyes are going to be on the tropics to finish out the workweek as the 7 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center highlights an area in the southwestern Atlantic that has a 80% chance of development over the course of the next two days.
The latest runs of the GFS and EURO models are in much better agreement today with the positioning of the system. Both models have the system in the northern/northwest Bahamas Wednesday night, both models also show the low-pressure system coming ashore on the southeast coast of Florida Thursday morning/afternoon.
The models do not agree on strength. EURO shows Florida impacted by a subtropical/tropical storm (likely to be named Nicole), and GFS shows a hurricane. The main difference between a tropical and subtropical storm has to do with the positions of the thunderstorms and the strongest winds. Tropical systems have thunderstorms and the highest wind much closer to the center of circulation whereas in a subtropical storm it is displaced 70 miles or so. Tropical systems also fuel themselves from the release of latent heat, and subtropical systems do not fully.
Beyond Florida, both models show a turn to the northeast and the low pressure impacting the Carolinas in 5/6 days. There is less agreement between the GFS and EURO. The EURO is weaker and faster moving
5/6 days is still a very long way out and the forecast is likely to change, but rain is going to be inevitable Thursday and Friday, also high surf and gusty conditions will be anticipated. A gale warning is already in effect.