A broad area of lower pressure sitting over the Bahamas is getting a lot of attention on social media. Talk of tropical development has people being reminded of a not so distant, impactful 2018 season. While development this early in the year is possible, it is unlikely with this system.
Four for Four:
Every year since 2015, a named storm has developed before June 1st; Over the past 10 seasons, we’ve tracked 8 pre-season systems.
So while it is possible, the National Hurricane Center is only giving this disorganized area of showers and storms a 20% chance of developing over the next 5 days. The area being watched is not completely tropical. Dry air is in and around the system, waters aren’t quite warm enough yet to provide a lot of fuel from below the storm and the structure of the area in question is lacking organization and tropical characteristics.
June 1st – November 30th are average dates. They are not rules hurricanes have to follow.
This area is a good attention grabber to remind people it’s that time of the year.
Humidity levels will gradually rise over the next couple of days. The moisture associated with the showers and storms will arrive to the Carolinas by Friday. There are still question marks as to how much moisture will move onshore. Models are suggesting a tenth to a half inch of rain Friday.
Better chances for showers and storms will arrive with a cold front over the weekend. That front will push any lingering tropical moisture out to sea and should dry us out for next week.
The moisture headed our way is actually a GOOD thing believe it or not. Parts of Horry, Florence, Georgetown and the Low Country are considered abnormally dry or in a moderate drought.