Chances for preseason tropical development are increasing for the weekend

StormTracker13 Hurricane Center


Conditions are becoming a little more favorable for the possibility of our first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While we are just 2 weeks away from the official start, it is not uncommon to see systems form this early out. If we do see a tropical system develop this weekend, it would be the 6th consecutive year of early season named storm. If this system develops it would take on the name Arthur and would likely be a sub tropical depression or storm.


A trough of low pressure is located over the Straits of Florida and is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas.

The system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week. The national Hurricane Center is giving this system a high 70% chance for tropical development over the next 48hours and a high 80% chance of development over the next 5 days.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary.


This system is expected to stay well offshore and not have any direct impacts to the Carolinas. As the system develops and moves northeast this weekend, some indirect impacts we would see, would be in the way of slightly higher waves, which surfers would love, and a higher rip current threat that could be a danger to swimmers. Our forecast is calling for mostly sunny skies with highs in the 80s both Saturday and Sunday. A few forecast models are suggesting some wind gust near 20-30mph Sunday and Monday. This would be in part to an approaching cold front along with our system well offshore.

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