WBTW NEWS13 – Researchers at Colorado State University, including Philip Klotzbach, have released their first forecast for the 2019 hurricane season. They are predicting a season with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 of those being major hurricanes. There is a 48% probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the US coast.
These numbers indicate a slightly below average season in most categories, but as we saw last year in the Carolinas, it doesn’t take a large number of storms to change our lives, it only takes one storm. These forecasts can’t pinpoint where or if any of these storms may make landfall, either. You should prepare for this season, just like you would any other. June 1st is the official start of hurricane season but every year for the past four, we have seen activity begin before then.
This particular forecast is released every year a couple months before the season begins to bring awareness to the season starting back up again. It gives people a little better of an idea on what we can expect this year, more so than just looking at ‘average numbers’.
The forecast is based on a multitude of variables and models. Some of this includes the current state of El Nino in the Pacific and sea surface temps across the Atlantic. This April forecast is the earliest that is issued and has modest long term skill, but has been proven to be better than just looking at the climatological average.
Additional forecasts from CSU as well as NOAA will be released in the coming months, and once hurricane season starts. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.