From the National Hurricane Center:
A trough of low pressure located over southwestern Georgia is producing disorganized showers. This disturbance is expected to move southward or southwestward during the next day or so, and a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Once the disturbance is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas coast to the western Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.